[syria and iran] strange bedfellows

A good place to start is with the Finance, the ones bankrolling the unrest. One of their organs, the CFR, has a good analysis of Syria and the salient points are:

- Syria was a proud Arab country, ruled with brutal consistency for thirty years by Hafez al-Assad, comfortably assured of its decades-old grip on Lebanon, and admired in the Arab world for standing up to Israel and representing the principles of pan-Arab unity. Then, in June 2000, Hafez al-Assad died.

- today, five years into the reign of his son and successor Bashar al-Assad, Syria is an international pariah whose actions have driven even Arab allies to reconsider their support of Damascus.

- in fall 2004, Bashar forced an extra-constitutional extension of Lebanese President Emile Lahoud’s term through the Lebanese legislature

- then-Prime Minister Rafik Hariri quit and joined the political opposition

- on February 14, 2005, Hariri and twenty-one others were killed in a massive car bombing in downtown Beirut

- UN special investigator Detlev Mehlis’s report accused members of Assad's most inner circle and the Syrian intelligence apparatus

- also funneling weapons to Hezbollah and aiding insurgents who cross the Syrian border

- a separate report by UN envoy Terje Roed-Larsen on progress toward implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1559, which mandates the withdrawal of all foreign troops from Lebanon and dismantling Hezbollah and other militias was supported by Hairiri

- Bashar al-Assad seems to be presiding over the potential demise of the Alawite regime

- Lebanese authorities arrested four pro-Syrian generals who worked closely with Ghazi Kenaan, who ran Syria’s intelligence apparatus in Lebanon from 1982-2002 and charged them with murder in the Hariri case

- Kenaan was questioned extensively and weeks later was found dead of a gunshot wound days before the Mehlis report was due. Syrian authorities called it suicide

- Hariri had very close ties to both Saudi Arabia and King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz plus France, funding part of Chirac’s presidential campaign

- Past Syrian assassinations were usually effective at causing the Lebanese political establishment to fall into line - Hariri was a huge mistake

- Bashar’s tone-deaf to international opinion and too weak to master the fractious tribal and regional demands of leading a country like Syria

- “He hasn’t grown into his own man,” says Richard Murphy, a former U.S. ambassador to Syria and Saudi Arabia who served in Damascus during Hafez al-Assad’s reign

- Hafez spread out power and played ambitious courtiers against one another; Bashar has concentrated influence within a small circle of close advisers and generally does not seek to build consensus

- Bashar has been offered a deal similar to that accepted by Libyan leader Colonel Muammar Qaddafi in 2003: If Syria stops its support for regional terror groups, its aid to the insurgency in Iraq, and its interference in Lebanon, Damascus can head off sanctions and further international isolation

- If Bashar caves, “he’ll be seen as selling out the goal of pan-Arab unity to save his own skin,” Gambill says. That would be unacceptable to Syrians, and thus makes such a compromise unlikely, he says

- Bashar has dashed early hopes he would reform Syria and open it up to the world. That hasn’t happened. Instead, Syrians have seen missteps, foreign policy mistakes, and the loss of Syrian power, territory, and friends (former allies Saudi Arabia and Egypt are siding with France and the United States against Syria on the Hariri issue)

- The country as a whole is weaker, and many people blame Bashar

- Bashar has no clear successor, and most of the Syrian establishment still views him as the leader. There’s no obvious alternative at the moment and too many people in Syria owe their lifestyles and everything they have to the continuation of this regime

- Syrians think Washington and Paris have been very demanding of Bashar, that as soon as he meets a condition they impose several more. There’s an idea that there’s nothing he can do to please them

From Israel News Agency:

- Bashar al-Assad was educated in the UK. His expelling of Saddam Hussein's relatives will not save him from the same fate for which Saddam finds himself in today - facing criminal charges in an open, democratic court

- As the UN Security Council met to discuss what to do next, the United States and its allies appeared to be laying the ground for economic sanctions against Damascus, which was forced to end its 29-year military presence in Lebanon amid intense international pressure.

- President George Bush has asked Syria a few times: "are you with us or against us?" This one is puzzling to me.

http://countrystudies.us/syria/67.htm says:

- Over the years, United States-Syrian bilateral relations ranged between grudging mutual accommodation and outright mutual hostility

- The United States endorses United Nations Security Council Resolution 242, the implementation of which would entail the return of the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights to Syrian control. This may be getting closer to the explanation.

- Syria has recognized that Resolution 242 contains provisions in its favor. Syria has been willing to negotiate with the United States over the Arab-Israeli conflict and other regional issues, as long as the diplomacy is conducted quietly and behind the scenes. Syria has also adhered scrupulously to the commitments and promises it has made to American negotiators.

- April 17, 1986, after attempting to smuggle a bomb aboard an Israeli El Al Airlines plane in London, Nizar Hindawi confessed that Syrian intelligence officers had masterminded the abortive attack and that Syria had provided him with the training, logistical support, and explosives to carry out the plot

- Assad sought to convince the United States that Syria, however intransigent its negotiating stance, should not be ignored in any comprehensive Middle East peace treaty because it could resume war with Israel and therefore exert veto power over an Arab-Israeli settlement.

- At the same time, however, Assad was convinced that the United States was indispensable in any Middle East peace because only the United States could force Israel to make concessions to the Arabs

CNN reported:
- "We are ready to help Syria on all grounds to confront threats," Iranian Vice-President Mohammad Reza Aref said after meeting Syrian PM Naji al-Otari

- Russian Defence Ministry confirmed it was discussing the possibility of selling missiles to Syria, known as Strelets

From various sources:

- As in Iran, the Kurds in Syria continue to suffer as a pariah minority with little hope for immediate improvement. Friction between Syria's minority Kurdish

- But I think what really went wrong - what turned Syrian into a pariah state - was his poor handling of foreign policy

- Syria has missed a golden opportunity to break out of its isolation during ... of a “new Middle East” risked reinforcing Syria’s pariah status in the West

The Financial Times added:

- Hariri reportedly commented after a fateful 2004 meeting with Mr Assad: "We are dealing with a group of lunatics who could do anything."

This may be the closest we can get to the real situation with Syria. Interesting that Iran, a Shi'ite nation, should ally itself with Syria, a Sunni, Ba'athist, minority Alawite elite given to degenerate fast and loose living. Politics makes strange bedfellows. Interesting that both should be pariah nations. Interesting that both should be led by lunatics. Makes one feel more ... secure somehow.